(The original text was published on December 12, and The content is The discussion between Kelly Iko and Danny Leroux on The Athletic website, which does not represent The translator’s point of view)
The rocket’s current record (8-18) is similar to what we imagined. Between cultivating young talents, a difficult start at the beginning of the season and a more ambitious reconstruction plan, the rocket has some unstable situations at both ends of attack and defense, which is expected. Having said that, the rocket has already had some positive development trends. Jay Green is becoming a more comprehensive offensive player. Little Jamari Smith seems to have enhanced his confidence after every match. With these two cornerstone players and a healthy salary space in the future, the future of the rocket is bright.
Kelly Iko, The rocket columnist on The Athletic website, invited salary expert Danny Leroux to discuss issues related to rocket salary space and potential transactions.
Kelly Iko: Thank you for coming, Danny Leroux. We haven’t discussed the future salary space of rockets and this team for some time. They will soon have certain salary space flexibility, but as for the current salary cap situation of rockets, what is the best evaluation? Is it possible for the Rockets to dig up other team players next summer? Can they take some actions this season to improve their future prospects?
Danny Leroux: the general manager Raphael stone and rocket will be in an interesting situation next year because they can afford the contract completely. If Eric Gordon is released or he is exchanged for an expired contract, the rocket will probably free up 61 million dollars in salary space, depending on the lottery draw this year. However, the management is facing a choice as to whether to postpone some or all of the purchasing power to 2024, because the new contract of Jay Green will take effect by 2025. Considering the poverty of the free agent market in 2023, especially the lack of high-quality young talents, it is a desirable strategy to stay put temporarily.
Although there must be players being traded by then, the Rockets are not competitive even after this season, so the sense of urgency to determine the lineup list is not very strong. After the end of this season, the only guaranteed contract for the rockets that is worth more than $10 million is the first year of the renewal contract of Kevin junior-PROTONIC, so even if the rockets do not make additional transactions, there is also a lot of flexibility in salary space.
Kelly Iko: By the way, what do you think of Eric Gordon’s situation? In the past few weeks and last season, his name has repeatedly appeared in the trade negotiations. Gordon’s situation is very embarrassing. A veteran who can contribute to the reconstruction team, a scorer who has both attack and defense, but the guaranteed contract is already the last year. To sum up, will you regard Gordon as an expired contract? How does this affect the transaction? Make things easier or harder?
Danny Leroux: if the rockets or potential trading partners want Gordon to be, then he is an expired contract. From the perspective of the team, this is the advantage of the unguaranteed contract, because all the control rights are in the hands of the team. More practically, if another team is not interested in Gordon’s $20.9 million contract next season, Gordon should be regarded as a player whose contract is about to expire. Anyway, next season’s unsecured contract will make Gordon’s deal easier to happen than full or partial guarantees, so it is a good thing for the Rockets.
Kelly Iko: It’s strange to see Gordon still wearing a rocket jersey, especially a group of inexperienced young people around him. Gordon has always been very professional. Even after so many changes, you have to doubt whether there will be a beam of light waiting for him at the end of the dark and long tunnel. Can Gordon finally be sent away on the trade deadline of this season? Or does his relationship with rockets have to continue until the end of this season?
Danny Leroux: if the rocket gets a valuable offer, it would be foolish to leave Gordon until the trade deadline. I would be surprised if no potential trading object gave a reasonable quotation. Unfortunately, Gordon has not played for the playoff team for several years. Now he is 33 years old and 34 years old after Christmas. He can still shoot and defend well, which can completely help an ambitious team.
Another reason why the deal should be reached is that if the rocket wants to take over a long-term contract in exchange for higher returns, Gordon’s contract is the best choice. At present, not many team managers are eager to clear the salary space for next season, but a deal that can improve the talent level of the lineup and clear the salary space is often more practical value. So finally, I want to say that I also expect Gordon to wear other team’s jerseys in the final stage of this season.
Kelly Iko: Another player that interests other teams is little Kenyon Martin. During the offseason, the third-grade striker once applied for a deal, but later he withdrew and played a high-yield performance at the beginning of the season, leading Martin to show his willingness to stay in the Rockets for a long time. What is the prospect of the renewal of little Kenyon Martin? How is his trading market? Which player do you think can refer?
Danny Leroux: the renewal of little Kenyon Martin’s contract during the season is very difficult, because the Rockets have team options for next season, which means that his contract has not expired, usually, they will not be eligible for renewal before the offseason next year. However, Rockets general manager stone can consider refusing to execute the team option next season, and then finish the renewal with him.
If we only consider the salary space, the biggest obstacle to Martin’s renewal is the expected average annual salary next season (theoretically the first year of contract renewal). At present, the specific number is still uncertain, but let’s make a rough estimate, 11.2 million dollars is more reasonable. This means that the rocket can only provide an annual salary of 12 million-14 million at most, and the amount increases year by year. Considering that Martin has not made a high-quality starting price, this number is higher than the contract I am willing to open for Martin, but this number is only the highest annual salary that both parties can sign, which is totally lower.
Martin’s trading value is hard to say. He has indeed made progress, but he has not played a real attraction yet, making another team willing to give a valuable offer. However, 78 percent of the basket’s final hit rate and 67 percent of the two-point goal’s overall hit rate are enough to arouse the interest of some teams, even though Martin’s three-point goal is still in the development process. My intuition is that Martin will not look back on the round signing, but rocket general manager stone can add some chips or add a young player who has little influence on the rocket’s future plans, in exchange for the first round of signing, just like he traded PJ-Tucker in 2021.
Kelly Iko: Is there any player you think the Rockets should fight for before the trade deadline? Or is the rocket willing to become a third party to facilitate some transactions, such as the Claude transaction of the sun?
Danny Leroux: the most appropriate concept here is to pursue the candidate of “second draft”, which is the term promoted by my colleague John Hollinger. The candidates of the “second draft” refer to that these players are regarded by the management of different teams as having more potential or talent than they show. Bohr, who was renewed after the Magic deal, certainly met this condition. I didn’t realize it at that time. By the way, some teams think little Kenyon Martin is their candidate for the “second draft.
For example, reddish, Sabre, Moody’s, Duarte, Maclaurin and RJ-Hampton can all try it out during the rest of the season, depending on what kind of return the teams in which these players are located require. If they are sold at a low price, they will buy at the bottom, otherwise they will give up.
In addition, this concept can be linked with promoting Claude’s transaction. Because neither the sun nor Claude’s potential family plan to use the players that the team can use at present as chips in the transaction.
The most critical question is crucial to what rocket general manager stone needs to do during the rest of the season. In order to obtain the first round of signing, how much salary space is rocket willing to sacrifice in 2023? Any team that helps other teams to facilitate transactions as a third party must consider this issue, otherwise it will probably sacrifice too much salary space but not get satisfactory returns.
Kelly Iko: the rocket’s operation this season and in the future will affect the reconstruction this time. If you are the general manager of rocket Stone, how do you plan to operate next summer? Are you going all out in the free agent market, or as a team rebuilding, all the changes in the lineup are aimed at winning the picks?
Danny Leroux: next year’s free agents are different, but the overall quality is still not good, which may simplify the operation of the rocket. The Rockets can start with chasing some big players, depending on which players the management thinks are very suitable for the young core of the Rockets (including the draft conference in 2023), and at the same time clearly express the willingness to sign the contract. These players specifically include Middleton, dreamgreen, Van frit, Porzingis and Turner. The scope needs to be further narrowed because some of them will give priority to other teams, and the rocket will not be interested in all these people. For a while, I really hoped that the rocket could join Van frit, but whether he could be competent as the creator of the main attack opportunity in the dynamic attack of the rocket was a question.
In addition to high-end talents, rocket general manager stone should aim to create value through a long-term contract that is ultimately lower than the market price. It is a bit like the bull signing Caruso at that time, a qualified rotating player with reasonable salary in the next few years, which is very difficult to achieve in the free player market. Although this kind of signing will weaken the rocket’s ability to spend money in 2023 and 2024, a rotating player who can contribute and the contract salary is friendly to the team will make the subsequent operation easier, there are fewer seats in the lineup. It is almost impossible to predict which players will fall into this category after seven months, but some players can already keep their attention, such as TJ-Warren, gawant-Green, briissett and kirkmaz. The core of this kind of operation is which players are safer to sign and can really help the team.
Another operation worth mentioning is to use salary space to get a player in the contract period. This may be a good choice to get a talented player with a premium contract. His team is eager to send him away, at present, it is unlikely that this will happen during the off-season next year. If a team wants to get rid of big contracts, it is also a good thing to become one of the few teams that can tray.
Original text: Kelly Iko & Danny Leroux
Compile: Li Taibai
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