There are parallel goods in every draft, but 2020 seems to be developing in the wrong direction. When almost every Lotto show fails to meet expectations, it is difficult not to analyze it.
In the game between Warriors and Philadelphia, Cole said before the game that Wiseman would play in this game. The latter has just been recalled by the team from the Development League. Since November, he has only played two NBA games, with a total appearance of 14 minutes.
Wiseman’s career was not smooth. The university only played three games. Later, due to the epidemic, the NBA schedule changed, and he only played part of the games. In the 2021-22 season, Wiseman missed the whole season due to injuries. A data can prove how bad warriors were when Wiseman was present. RAPM, according to the positive and negative values of teammates and opponents, he ranked 755th among all 775 players in Wiseman’s career.
Fortunately, there were even worse players than Wiseman in the same period. In 2020, the seventh ranking Killian Hays ranked 763, and the fourth ranking Patrick Williams was no better, ranking 721.
Parallel players annually, but there are so many people like 2020. Because too many players with great expectations have not played in line with the league’s performance. At least compared with the expected data, the ranking of the top ten in 2020 is more or less below the standard.
Note: WAR is an irreplaceable value of Victory statistics on the data website FiveThirtyEight based on players’ performance in various aspects of attack and defense. The higher the value, the more irreplaceable it is. In this table, except for three goals and afdia, the rest of the players were lower than expected, of which Wiseman was the worst.
Let’s start with a good analysis first. The third ranking, lameello-Bauer, was selected as an All-Star last season and looked like a future star. The top star Edward also fulfilled his talent, but compared with the top players in the past, there are still some gaps compared with the expected goals because the standards they set are too high and the progress Edward has been slow this season. From the lottery area was first proposed to the 2019 Session, 54% of the top players have been selected as All-Star or the best team in three seasons. This year’s Edwards seems difficult to meet this standard.
However, in terms of current performance, Edwards and three goals are not the best players in 2020. To find the best player, it is not enough to look at the top ten. Just like 2013, the best player is the letter elder brother in the 15th order.
The ranking of this table illustrates two rules. First, ranking is not the key. Second, the top five players are all defenders, plus Wassel (11th in sequence) and Maxi (21th in sequence) directly constitute the top seven outstanding players of 2020. Subjectively speaking, quikley is definitely not likely to rank second, but according to high-level data, when quikley is on the court in the Knicks, they are obviously better teams.
Scotty-Barnes and mobry of the 2021th session, as well as bankelo of the 2022th session, all show that young big ones or flanks can also succeed, as long as they have the skills to hold the ball successfully in NBA. However, for the 2020 players, all non-defender players have suffered setbacks to varying degrees, regardless of their origins.
None of the four big ones in the top ten have much positive impact on the game. Wiseman has been developing league exercises and cannot help the defending champion remain competitive on the court. Sun did not even execute the player option of Jay Smith in the third year, making him the first top 10 rookie to win this “honor” since Joe Alexander in 2008. Although Eagle’s Okongwu and Knicks’s tuoping both showed their talent in sports, they did not gain more playing time or make greater progress this season.
The 3D players of this session did not shine well, and their limitation of attack made them fail to win on the defensive side. Williams of the bull bears a lot of responsibilities on the defensive end, because the best three players in the team are all all stars with attack first. According to the statistics of Second Spectrum, in Williams’s career, he was the player with the most rounds of anti-alphabet brother, and anti-Zion was the Second most. In addition, players like Tatum, Butler, Durant and Leonard are all the top 10 players in Williams defensive round.
However, on the offensive side, Williams had no sense of presence in the bull system and rarely saw him participate in it. The career usage rate is only 15%, and the number of mistakes exceeds the number of assists. Williams has not won the trust of coach donowan. Williams’s passivity is mainly in his shooting data-the career three-point shooting rate is 42%, ranking sixth among the active players who shot at least 200 three points. However, compared with other players in the top ten, his three-point shots are less than half of any other players. Most of Williams only chose the shot with full space, but given his hit rate, he could win more opportunities for himself.
Ranking of active three-point hit rate
A similar situation also happened to the Wizards player avdia. The defense was solid but the usage rate was only 15%, but the three-point hit rate was only 31%. The Knight’s Okolo has defended almost everyone this season, but the attacking end is difficult to pose a threat.
The stagnation of Ocoro’s development is likely to affect the Knight’s competition for the championship. They are strong champions this season. The four starting performances are stable, but there is no clear answer to the position of the small forward. Theoretically, the players in the top five ranks can fill this vacancy. However, from the performance of the game, Okolo ranked only 10th in the team in terms of playing time, scores and shots. Among all the Knights flanks, he had less playing time than Osman (the second round show in 2015), Wade (the drop draft) and Stevens (the drop draft).
Because Okolo held back the attack, it was difficult for you to let him participate in more attacks. This season averaged 4 points, with a three-point shooting rate of 24%, and the defense he faced was the third easiest.
The last defender who needs to improve himself on the offensive side is Hays, who is the most efficient scorer in the league. Since his first show, among all the players who shot more than 750 times, his real field goal percentage is only 45%, and the league is the worst. Although the absence of Corning Ham due to injury gave Hays more opportunities, his efficiency did not improve at all. Although he occasionally played a bright game-recently helping the team drag into the plus match with Lone Ranger and Hornets-the real hit rate this season is still the worst in the league.
These players mentioned just now, their current performance certainly did not meet the expectations of the team when they were selected in 2020. In contrast, almost all the best players in the 2021th session were piled up in the top ten: 2021-22 the best rookie team had four top four matches (Corning ham, jellon Green, mobry and Barnes), and Wagner in the eighth order.
On the contrary, the 2020 draft is more like the 2015 draft, except for the top star Downs and the 13th rank Booker who entered the best lineup, the rest did not meet expectations. The fourth ranking, polzingis, was excellent in the early stage of his career, but later he failed to continue due to injuries, so was Powell. In addition, the top ten ranks in 15 years are full of parallel goods-okafu (the third rank), Mario-Hai Zuo ni (the fifth rank), Moody’s (the seventh rank) and Stanley Johnson (eighth in sequence).
After three seasons, only two of the top ten rankings of 2015 can achieve the expected performance-downs and platinum, just like the three goals of 2020.
The above ten players, except Downs, failed to stay in the original team, but the players who failed to meet the expectations of the 2020 session still had a bad impact on the current team. Perhaps before the trading deadline of this season, because Wiseman could not provide help in the regular time, Warriors may use him as a trading asset and give up the sunk cost of signing 2. The Knight may be able to try the flank upgrade, because Okolo is not a reliable contributor. Other teams, such as bulls and Eagles, can reduce the playing time of senior generals and let Williams and Okongwu get more exercise, because the team needs to see if the two young people are worth staying before renewing their contract with them next summer.
The 2020 players are still young, and some may grow into more productive players with the increase of age and competition experience. But for now, this draft reminds us that it is not easy to predict the height of the future rookie.
Author: Zach Kram
Compilation: Fontaine
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